ESTIMATING THE 10-YEAR RISK ASSESSMENT FOR CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE AT A HOSPITAL OF TERTIARY CARE IN PUNJAB USING THE ASCVD RISK ESTIMATOR

ABSTRACT Background Cardiovascular risk prediction algorithms contain a variety of CVD risk variables. Since the prediction models that were currently available were created using non-Asian cohorts, we made the decision to assess the ASCVD risk estimation model's performance in Punjab as well as the ten-year CVD predisposing factors that were linked with it. Methods Patients with diabetes mellitus and hypertension in a major hospital in Punjab, India, participated in a crosssectional study that we conducted. Following their admission to the hospital ward, 176 people without ASCVD who were at forty years or more were assessed.Data on the sociodemographics and behavioural tendencies were gathered using a pre-validated questionnaire. According to established procedures, blood pressure and lipid profiles were obtained. We used ASCVD Risks Estimator Plus to determine the respondents' CVD risk. With the use of binary logistic regression and Chi-square bivariate analysis, the data were examined with IBM SPSS version 26. At a significance level of 5%, the predictors of the 10-year risk for CVD were found. Measurements We evaluated the correlations between particular risk variables and the predicted cardiovascular events in addition to the expected outcomes' categorisation.The results of this study were categorised into four groups: low group (1-4%), borderline group (6-9%), intermediate group (10-20%), and high group (21-95%). Result The majority of the 176 patients—68, or 38.6%—were in the high category, which includes 50, or 28.4%, being in the intermediate category, 34, or 19.3%, being in the low category, and 24 (or 13.6%) being in the borderline category. The ASCVD proportion that was median was 14.94%. The largest risk of having CVDs was linked to respondents who were smokers. Additionally, compared to females (M=16.22%), men had a considerably higher mean projected CVD outcome percentage (M=27.52%). Conclusion According to our prediction analysis, 108 participants (61.4%) were not at risk of developing an ASCVD in the ensuing decade. However, middle-aged men ought to be more cautious about their lifestyle choices, particularly with regard to risk factors that exacerbate their vulnerability to cardiovascular diseases. Keywords Systolic blood pressure, Cardiovascular illness, Risk prediction model, Diabetes mellitus, hypertension, Low density lipoprotein, High density lipoprotein, The ASCVD risk estimator plus