D3.4 0FLW impact scenarios

The CHORIZO project is dedicated to enhancing the understanding of how social norms influence behaviours related to food waste generation. To reach this aim, two computer simulations have been developed. The work presented in this deliverable directly build upon the conceptual framework presented in D3.1 “Conceptual framework for behavioural change understanding”, which integrated the MOA and HUMAT frameworks that were adopted to develop the computer simulations. The project addresses how both individual and social influences shape food waste outcomes. CHORIZO’s modelling approach enables simulation of these influences, providing insights into how behaviours around food waste generation vary across different social contexts.This deliverable builds on prior work by testing a set of what-if scenarios using two distinct models: the Establishment Diner model, focused on food waste in social dining settings, and the Home Cook model, focused on household food consumption and waste. These models are designed to reflect the roles of injunctive and descriptive social norms alongside other individual and social factors, helping to illustrate the factors driving food waste in both public and private contexts. The functioning mechanisms of the two models are described in D3.3 “Case-independent changing social norms predictive model”.Deliverable 3.4 “0FLW impact scenarios” presents the methodology used to simulate what-if scenarios in the two models, and the results of these simulations. This deliverable remains highly technical in its content. Two main categories of scenarios were developed and applied within the models: intervention scenarios, which examine specific food waste reduction strategies (e.g., communication strategies, plate sizes), and population scenarios, which explore how different population characteristics (e.g., demographics, awareness levels) affect food waste generation. By combining these scenarios, it is possible to identify strategies that balance diverse behaviours to reduce food waste in different settings.The document concludes with insights drawn from scenario outcomes, identifying effective strategies as well as challenges in model generalization due to the variability of behaviours and settings. Findings from both models underscore the critical role of tailored, context-specific interventions in effectively reducing FW. For hospitality settings, raising sustainability awareness broadly and focusing interventions on leisure guests can be highly effective, while combining plate size adjustments with positive messaging may further enhance FW reduction. In households, strategies that promote balanced consumption, awareness of storage practices, and informed decision-making around in-store promotions can curb FW generation. Together, these insights provide a foundation for FW reduction intervention and campaign planners – as well as food service professionals – for designing more effective and targeted FW interventions across various settings, supporting the CHORIZO project’s mission of achieving zero food waste. Finally, the report outlines potential areas for future work, including further adaptations to address unique settings such as schools, where different social dynamics and environmental constraints may impact food waste behaviours.