Econometric Modelling of Unemployment in Sarawak: Assessing the Asymmetric Effects

Abstract: This study aims to examine the asymmetry relationship between job vacancy, economic growth (GDP), government spending (GS), labour force participation (LFP), inflation (CPI), and unemployment in Sarawak using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. We collected data from the Department of Statistics Malaysia, spanning the period from 1982 to 2020. To investigate the asymmetric effects of job vacancies on unemployment, job vacancies were disaggregated into five types based on occupation type to provide a more nuanced analysis. Findings demonstrated that unemployment in Sarawak is more sensitive to negative changes in independent variables. The study suggests that an increase in factors positively affects unemployment. However, a decrease in these factors does not necessarily reduce unemployment in the labour market. Keywords: Sarawak, Unemployment, Job vacancy, Macroeconomic factors, NARDL