A 10% Lethal Synthetic Virus Could Cause Societal Collapse to a Pre-Industrial Civilization

In 2021 I and three academic colleagues, with substantial forensic bioinformatics skills, published a pre-print[1] describing the detection of Nipah virus sequences in an infectious clone format, a BSL4-level pathogen and CDC-designated Bioterrorism Agent. These sequences were inadvertent contamination in raw RNA-Seq sequencing reads from the BSL-2 laboratories of the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). The specimens were taken from five patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 and hospitalized in December 2019. Given that the Nipah virus is 40-75% lethal, the prospect of a pandemic with a pathogen significantly more deadly than SARS-CoV-2 needs to be considered. Using the case fatality rate for the 1918 influenza at 2.5% to 9.7%[2] suggests an upper limit of about 10% for a society changing pandemic. In addition, the historical estimates of lethality for four epidemics, dating from 430 BC to the 16th century that changed the course of history, all clustered at about a 10% case fatality rate.[3] I will therefore use a CFR of 10% for a hypothetical synthetic virus as the base case to estimate its impact on modern society. I conclude: · The potential is high for a synthetic virus with a 10% fatality rate to cause societal collapse, using historical pandemics as context. · Cascading failures in healthcare, energy, food supply, and governance will lead to widespread instability. · The fragility of interconnected systems and the amplified risks in a globalized society is substantial. The knock-on societal fragmentation and economic collapse is likely to result from such a crisis. · Important strategies need to be put in place to mitigate risks, including decentralized infrastructure, robust preparedness, and regulation of synthetic biology. [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.09112 Nipah virus vector sequences in COVID-19 patient samples sequenced by the Wuhan Institute of Virology. SC Quay, D Zhang, A Jones, Y Deigin [2] Taubenberger JK, Morens DM. 1918 Influenza: the mother of all pandemics. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006 Jan;12(1):15-22. doi: 10.3201/eid1201.050979. PMID: 16494711; PMCID: PMC3291398. [3] The oldest of these four pandemics was the Plague of Athens (430 BC). While its cause is unknown, it was possibly caused by typhoid fever or viral hemorrhagic fever. The estimated CFR of around 10%–15% was based on historical records. The impact was the death of about 25% of Athens' population, significantly affecting the Peloponnesian War. The next pandemic was the Antonine Plague (165–180 AD), which was suspected to be caused by either smallpox or measles. It also had an estimated CFR of around 10% in affected populations. The impact was an estimated 5 million deaths in the Roman Empire, including emperors and soldiers. The Antonine Plague is often considered one of the early markers of the Roman Empire's slow decline. While Rome would recover in the short term, the vulnerabilities exposed by the plague set the stage for later crises. Next was the Plague of Justinian (541–542 AD), caused by Yersinia pestis (bubonic plague). The plague killed an estimated 25–50 million people across the Mediterranean, including a large portion of the Byzantine population. This demographic collapse severely reduced the empire's tax base and labor force. The empire faced severe economic consequences, with trade networks disrupted and agricultural production plummeting. This led to food shortages, inflation, and a strain on state finances. Justinian raised taxes to address the financial shortfall, further alienating an already suffering population. Widespread death and suffering led to social unrest, as people questioned the legitimacy of the emperor and turned to religious or superstitious explanations for the disaster. The plague marked the beginning of a period of contraction for the Byzantine Empire. While Justinian’s reign saw temporary successes, the empire’s weakened state left it vulnerable to subsequent invasions and internal crises. The demographic and economic decline contributed to a shift in the balance of power in Europe and the Mediterranean, enabling the rise of new political entities, such as the Islamic Caliphates, in the following centuries. Finally, the Cocoliztli Epidemics in the 16th century in Mexico, likely caused by a hemorrhagic fever virus exacerbated by environmental factors and introduced diseases. The estimated CFR was approximately 10% or higher in indigenous populations. The impact was to devastate the Aztec population, with millions perishing.