China-Philippines De-escalation: Will It Sustain?

For many decades, the South China Sea (SCS) has been a center of geopolitical rivalry among the great powers—the United States, China, Japan—and other coastal countries, with competing claims of territory and strategic interests giving rise to notable conflicts. In recent months, the rapport between China and the Philippines has been predominantly stressed, marked by progressively belligerent encounters in disputed waters. However, on July 2, 2024, representatives from both countries met in Manila for the 9th meeting of their Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the SCS with a view to easing tensions and finding common ground for peace mechanisms through dialogues. The meeting was held after a series of hostilities, most notably the June 17 incident near Second Thomas Shoal in which a Philippine Navy supply ship hit a Chinese vessel. This escalation happened just days after China announced new maritime patrol regulations, known as China Coast Guard Order #3 (CCG Regulation), giving authority to its coast guard to impede foreign ships for up to 60 days if suspected of unlawfully entering what China considers its territorial waters. In the meantime, the bilateral dialogue exhibits a substantial step towards de-escalation. The Department of Foreign Affairs of the Philippines noted that while “substantial progress” was brought forth on improving the situation at sea, “significant differences remain.” This optimism echoes the dynamics of the negotiations and the long path ahead in resolving the deep-rooted disputes between the two countries. However, while diving deep into the complex realities of this issue, we cannot but consider diverse factors that influence the sustainability of this de-escalation approach. From domestic politics to the influence of external powers, every single aspect related to this geopolitical development holds a significant depth in determining the future of China-Philippines relations and the wider stability of the SCS region.