Forecasting the financial development of small businesses in Ukraine in the post-war period

The article aims to analyse the state of small businesses in Ukraine during the pre-war and wartime periods, investigating the impact of shock processes caused by the war on their economic condition and forecasting possibilities for financial development. General scientific methods were used to conduct the research, including analysis and synthesis to identify and summarise the problem of small business development, statistical analysis of the financial indicators of small businesses, and graphical representation of the results to illustrate the conclusions. The research analysed the number of small enterprises and their financial results for 2013–2022 using Excel graphical tools. The paper discusses macroeconomic indicators for different types of enterprises, including sales volumes, profitability, and net profit. It also provides assessments of forecasts for the financial development of small businesses in Ukraine during the post-war period, taking into account state support measures. The development of small businesses in Ukraine is hindered by the impact of war factors and the inconsistency of state policy towards their growth. To forecast the financial development of small businesses at different management levels, a detailed analysis of their organisational, production, and financial condition is necessary. The study presents findings on the trends in the functioning of small enterprises and the number of employees working for them during the mentioned period. It also characterises the measures taken by the state and international partners to support domestic small businesses. This study’s practical significance lies in analysing the state of small businesses and forecasting their financial development in the post-war period.