Trend Analysis of Some Crop Yields and Agro-Meteorologic Drought in the Trakya Region

Drought is one of the most dangerous-meteorologic events affecting agriculture. Drought can be determined by indexes. In this study, the relationship between the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) results and trend analysis results was examined. Thus, the consistency of the drought in Trakya with the results of the trend analysis was investigated. For this purpose, using the precipitation data of Tekirdag, Kirklareli, and Edirne Meteorological Observation Stations (MOS), drought analysis was done with SPI, trend analysis was done with the help of Mann-Kendall, Sen and Linear Regression methods. In addition, the deviation value of crop yield value from the mean were produced and compared with the drought index result. As a result, the crop most incompatible with the drought results in Trakya is the wheat. In addition, agriculture is not expected to be affected by droughts in Trakya where meteorological drought is not dominant. Edirne is prone to drought while Kirklareli is expected to be prone to humidity, relatively. Nevertheless, there is no significant trend in Trakya in general.