Global patterns and drivers of climate-driven fires in a warming world

Abstract. Wildfires increasingly threaten human lives, ecosystems, and climate, yet a comprehensive understanding of the factors driving their future dynamics and emissions remains elusive, hampering mitigation efforts. In this study, we assessed how future climate change would influence global burned area (BA) and carbon emissions between 2015 to 2100. Using the Community Land Model (version 5) with active biogeochemistry and fire, we simulated the effects of climate drivers such as temperature, precipitation, and CO2 levels under two future pathways (low warming, SSP1-2.6, and high warming, SSP3-7.0). Our model reproduces historical BA magnitude and spatial distribution, projecting a global BA increase of +6400 km2 yr–1 under SSP1-2.6 and +7500 km2 yr–1 under SSP3-7.0. While tropical regions remain nearly stable, boreal regions experience the most significant rise, with BA increasing by +5200 km2 yr-1 in SSP1-2.6 and +8500 km2 yr-1 in SSP3-7.0, an overall increase of 200 %. This rise is accompanied by increased carbon emissions of +4 Tg yr-1 and +7 Tg yr-1 under SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0, respectively. The main drivers of these changes are reduced soil moisture and increased fuel supply (i.e., vegetation carbon) under a warming climate, with CO2 fertilization enhancing biomass growth and further contributing to higher fire risks. These findings underscore the need for integrating climate-driven wildfire dynamics into global management and policy frameworks to mitigate future fire-related threats.