How Will Antarctic Precipitation Change in a Warming Future Climate?

Due to increased human emissions of greenhouse gasses, temperatures are increasing globally, including in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere. The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), the largest body of freshwater on Earth, is losing ice in response to global warming. It is expected that the AIS will continue to lose mass and contribute to rising sea levels throughout the remainder of the 21st century. AIS mass balance, and its contribution to sea levels, constitutes the difference between incoming mass at the ice sheet surface (snowfall), and the discharge of ice to the ice shelves and ocean (ice flow). As current and future AIS mass loss will be primarily driven by increased ice flow, it is unclear how much snowfall on the ice sheet will be required to keep the mass balanced. In this research, we analyze historical and future simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) produced by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We are comparing the future and historical AIS snowfall to better understand how AIS snowfall will change throughout the 21st century and how much it could potentially offset enhanced AIS mass loss driven by increased ice flow. We found that throughout the future period, snowfall is projected to increase, especially around the coastal regions of the continent.