The Increase in Refugees to Germany and Exclusionary Beliefs and Behaviors

In 2015–16, Germany experienced a rapid and controversial increase in refugees that varied substantially across German districts. This increase provides unique leverage for analyzing how fractionalization, threat, and contact shape the consequences of immigration and ethnolinguistic heterogeneity. Using the German Socio-Economic Panel and local district-level administrative data on refugee shares, we innovatively focus on within-person/within-district change in six exclusionary beliefs and behaviors. We demonstrate a two-level cross-cutting process that integrates threat and contact theory but contradicts fractionalization theory. As the refugee share increased nationally, concerns about immigration and Far Right party support increased. However, district-level refugee shares significantly reduced concerns about immigration and Far Right party support. Also, rising district-level refugee shares are not associated with concerns about social cohesion, trust, residential moves, and subjective fair tax rates. While districts with fewer refugees drove the national-level threat, rising district-level refugee shares reduced or did not heighten exclusionary beliefs and behaviors.