The Fleets of the Naval Powers USA and China

This working paper analyzes the strategies of the naval powers China and the United States, which focus on the expansion and modernization of their fleets. The United States' far-reaching control of the Pacific and the so-called first island chain with the US allies Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines limit China's influence. This situation remained stable during the 20th century, but now China's resurgence had also military impact. China is now attempting to push the US Navy back to the so-called second island chain around Guam. Even if the number of ships alone says nothing about combat power, China also has the world's largest navy from the American perspective. By 2030, the Americans expect 435 Chinese military vessels compared to 294 own vessels. While most US ships were built in the 1990s and 2000s, China began most of its ship building after 2010. China will also surpass the United States in firepower by 2027. China's late but rapidly expanding naval construction is also linked to the modernized military doctrine. A special feature are the land-based DongFeng anti-ship long-range missiles and the hypersonic weapons. In addition to the navy, there is also a strong naval militia and coast guard. The Americans are countering this development with new tactics and modern weapons systems. In terms of traditional manned combat ships, the US Navy will not catch up with the Chinese Navy in the next 30 years, but a second fleet of 134 unmanned ships and submarines is planned which could be used for reconnaissance and combat missions. China is working on hypersonic missiles and anti-ship cruise missiles, and the US Navy is currently developing similar systems. The US Navy is also working on laser systems which are fast and powerful enough to destroy Chinese anti-ship missiles. China is trying to catch up with the American lead in laser weapons. Like the US Navy, China is also working on unmanned systems. The US Navy is already deploying its most modern ships to the Pacific and investing in infrastructure and training. This is in addition to a new tactical concept with more dispersed ships equipped with improved sensors, and the deployment of more long-range weapons and unmanned systems. However, most unmanned systems on both sides are still in the development phase, making it difficult to estimate their actual growth and impact. The US Navy dominates the construction of nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed submarines, but China currently has six Jin-class submarines, which now have nuclear missiles capable of attacking the United States from the South China Sea. The US Department of Defense's Replicator program aims to deploy cost-effective and autonomous systems on a scale of several thousand in various domains in the Indo-Pacific, networking all types of unmanned and autonomous systems from underwater systems to satellites. A key problem in long-term planning, in addition to financing and delays in development and construction, is the rapid technological progress that will promote the trend towards unmanned systems and anti-ship missiles, making the future of the traditional navy increasingly questionable.