Holistic Assessment of Scenarios for Future PV Deployment Considering Circular Economy in the EU Using PV ICE

In terms of photovoltaic (PV) production capacities, the EU is well behind nations such as China or Vietnam [1]. The EU Commission aims to provide 40% of the required PV capacity for the year 2030 with PV modules that are produced in Europe [2]. With the increased share of in-house production, mass, and energy flows will change significantly. As PV production in Europe expands, the importance of a circular economy (CE) also increases [3]. This work leverages the PV in circular economy tool (PV ICE) to evaluate two circular economy cases and it adapts the tool for the first time to the European market. The first case presented assumes that the EU Commission's target of 40% inhouse PV production will be met and that the PV module production will increase significantly over the next few years. Therefore, an End-of-Life (EoL) and recycling treatment will be possible. The potential circular economy in terms of mass and energy flows in the EU in 2030 is analyzed. The second case assumes that the EU targets cannot be met and that there is no PV module production in the EU due to the high level of competition, for example in China. Therefore, the energy savings of recyclates used in other industries are analyzed. The two cases emerged after intensive discussions and interviews with global players from the recycling industry. In the first scenario significant material and energy savings can be achieved through the reuse of EoL modules, particularly in glass and aluminum. Recycling leads to considerable reductions in both the mass of required raw materials and energy consumption, with the 19% growth scenario requiring approximately 3,550 TWh by 2050, compared to 3,650 TWh without recycling. In contrast, the second scenario results in smaller savings. Overall, the study underscores the importance of local production and high-quality recycling to maximize the environmental benefits of a circular economy in the PV sector, though challenges remain due to current limitations in recycling technologies and the economic feasibility of reintegrating recycled materials into new modules.