Is the Value of (BI)PV Increasing or Decreasing Over Time?

In the Netherlands, installment of PV has rapidly increased in recent years, up to a share of 18% of the electricity mix in 2023. This makes the Netherlands an interesting case to test the popular notion that the value of renewables in general, and PV specifically, decreases with deeper penetration rates. We analyze this for the period of 2018 to 2023, not only for optimally oriented PV, but also for facade PV. Deploying PV on facades is an increasingly promising option, due to the decreasing availability of appropriate roof space and the better match of east and west facade PV electricity generation with electricity demand. Our analysis makes use of the value factor, which is the ratio between the average price received for PV-generated electricity on the spot market, and the overall average price. The main finding of this research is that in contrast predictions, the economic value of PV is not decreasing over time. In the years 2021 to 2023, the revenue of PV-generated electricity was much higher than in the years 2018-2020. In relative terms (i.e. the value factor), the value of PV is decreasing over time. In this regard, east and west facade PV form an exception, with an only slowly declining value factor, a promising result for the BIPV sector.