Anomalously Warm European Summers Predicted More Accurately by Considering Sub-Decadal North Atlantic Ocean Heat Accumulation

Focusing on predicting anomalously warm temperatures in Europe, this study delves into a coupled mechanism within the North Atlantic ocean. By examining the accumulation of heat in the North Atlantic ocean, we unveil its potential for forecasting extreme European summers several years in advance. Through a novel ensemble selection approach that integrates this mechanism, we evaluate its impact on decadal temperature prediction skill. Our analysis demonstrates significant enhancements in both deterministic and probabilistic predictions of Central European summer temperature extremes over multiple lead years. These findings underscore the value of incorporating sub-decadal oceanic processes into climate prediction methodologies, offering critical insights for mitigation strategies against the impacts of anomalous heat events.