L'instabilité imprévisible ou les nouvelles conditions d'une politique agricole

Unpredictable instability or the conditions for an agricultural policy - In farming, as in all other fields, forecasts are often proved wrong and important events are often unforeseen. This is not very surprising if one thinks that even the present itself is not very weU known. Inaccurate and all-embracing statistics do not enable present reality to be analysed deeply enough. And that is only one of the many reasons for the difficulties involved in exploring the future. But with a little thought, one is tempted to say that the unforeseeable does not exist. Although no-one can say with certainty what is going to happen, a complete analysis, taking the different elements of problems into account, should enable the event that takes everyone by surprise (eg. Soviet purchase of wheat in 1972) to be considered as a possibility. Even if the exploration of «r possible futures » has not the same value as a « forecast », it can be very useful. Whatever the methods used, the main thing is to set up teams that are not only interdepartmental but that are composed of all the schools of thought in each field.