Childbearing and Family Instability: The Impact of Children on Women's Divorce Probability in Iran

In recent years, the incidence of divorce in Iran has risen significantly, making it a pressing social concern. Various demographic and social factors contribute to this trend, with childbearing and the number of children in a family playing a crucial role. This study explores how the presence and number of children influence the likelihood of divorce among Iranian women. A secondary analysis of two-percent sample from the 2016 census data reveals that both childlessness and the number of children in a household significantly affect the probability of divorce among women. The findings indicate that having children reduces the likelihood of divorce, as women who have given birth during their marriage are less likely to divorce than those without children. Moreover, the study demonstrates that a higher number of children is associated with greater marital stability, with families having three or more children exhibiting higher levels of stability compared to others. The results underscore the critical role of childbearing in sustaining marital relationships in Iran. While supporting marriage and family formation, policymakers can enhance family stability by implementing policies and support systems that encourage childbearing. ‌ Keywords Population Changes, Childbearing, Family Stability, Value of Children, Women's Divorce Introduction The family, as the fundamental social institution, plays a pivotal role in human development and the fulfillment of essential needs (Azadarmaki & Bahar, 2006: 590-591). However, this dynamic institution undergoes continuous semantic, structural, and functional transformations. Over the past century, Iranian family structures and relationships have experienced significant changes (Abbasi-Shavazi, 2017: 55; Abbasi‐Shavazi et al., 2009: 1309; Mohammadpur et al., 2009: 311; Shahpari Sani et al., 2021: 5). One of the most critical social challenges arising from these transformations is the rising divorce rate (Abbasi‐Shavazi et al., 2009: 1310; Alimondegari et al., 2016: 63-65; Askari-Nodoushan et al., 2019: 2; Azadarmaki & Bahar, 2006: 591; Sadeghi, 2016: 190). Divorce has thus become a major societal concern. Among the factors influencing marital dissolution, childbearing and the number of children are key determinants (Alimondegari et al., 2016: 64; Sadeghi, 2018: 207). Given the cultural and social fabric of Iranian society and the socioeconomic consequences of divorce for women, this study investigates the extent to which childbearing and the number of children impact the probability of divorce among Iranian women. It addresses two key research questions: (1) Does having children influence the probability of divorce among women? (2) If so, how does the number of children affect this probability? Theoretical Framework Various theoretical perspectives offer insights into the relationship between childbearing and marital stability. Household economics theory (Becker et al, 1977: 1146; Kaplan et al, 2020: 127), sociological approaches (Waite & Lillard, 1991: 937), and social psychology perspectives (Kaplan et al, 2020: 127) argue that children contribute to marital stability. Conversely, alternative models, such as the role conflict model (Kaplan et al, 2020: 126-127; Twenge, 2003: 576), freedom restriction model (Garvin, 1997: 128), and financial cost model (Twenge, 2003: 576-578), posit that childbearing may contribute to marital dissolution by imposing additional burdens on couples. This study integrates these theoretical perspectives to analyze the research problem. Methods This study employs a descriptive-analytical approach, utilizing secondary data analysis from the 2016 Iranian census (2% sample). The dataset comprises household and individual records, with the individual file containing 1,579,435 cases, of which 783,060 (49.5%) are women. Based on marital status information, the final sample includes only married (coded as 0) and divorced (coded as 1) women. The total sample consists of 436,551 women, comprising422, 363 married women and 14,188 divorced women. The study applies the Chi-square test for bivariate analysis and logistic regression for multivariate analysis. Findings and discussion The results reveal that childbearing and the number of children significantly impact the probability of divorce among Iranian women. Women who have given birth during their marriage are less likely to divorce than those without children. Moreover, a higher number of children contributes to greater marital stability with families having three or more children exhibiting the highest levels of stability. These findings align with household economics theory, sociological perspectives, and social psychology approaches, all of which emphasize the stabilizing role of children in marital relationships. The study concludes that in Iranian society, parental emotional attachment to children plays a crucial role in reducing divorce risk and strengthening marital bonds. Conclusion This study highlights the pivotal role of childbearing and the number of children in fostering marital stability among Iranian families. The findings underscore the need for policy measures that support childbearing as a means to strengthen family cohesion. Population policy planning should incorporate strategies that promote childbearing through economic incentives, housing support, and work-family balance policies, ensuring a more stable and resilient family structure. Funding This research and its associated publication costs were fully funded by the authors. 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