The Range of New-Crop Price Expectations Is Narrowing Early

Commodity options markets provide implicit estimates of the probabilities associated with future price outcomes. As uncertainty about commodity supply and demand is resolved over time, the range of possible future price outcomes shrinks. This article assesses the market's current implied price distribution for 2024 new-crop corn and soybean prices as given by the farmdoc Price Distribution Tool and discusses the implications for farmer marketing decisions.

Publication Details

Journal
AgEcon Search (University of Minnesota, USA)
Published
2025-01-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.358486
Primary Topic
Market Dynamics and Volatility
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00
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article

The Range of New-Crop Price Expectations Is Narrowing Early

AgEcon Search (University of Minnesota, USA)
Market Dynamics and Volatility
article

The Range of New-Crop Price Expectations Is Narrowing Early

article en

Abstract

Commodity options markets provide implicit estimates of the probabilities associated with future price outcomes. As uncertainty about commodity supply and demand is resolved over time, the range of possible future price outcomes shrinks. This article assesses the market's current implied price distribution for 2024 new-crop corn and soybean prices as given by the farmdoc Price Distribution Tool and discusses the implications for farmer marketing decisions.

AgEcon Search (University of Minnesota, USA)
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The Range of New-Crop Price Expectations Is Narrowing Early · AgEcon Search (University of Minnesota, USA) (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS