Developing technology visions for paradigm-shifting technologies: An exploratory study on the example of quantum computing

As quantum computing (QC) gains prominence in both media and industry, a significant gap between stakeholder expectations and the realistic timeline for technological maturity becomes obvious. This disparity risks commitment of investors and companies for the development of QC. Therefore, the focus of this paper lies on conceptualizing a technology vision to foster a long-term investor engagement. Through literature reviews and semi-structured interviews, requirements for a convincing vision are defined and a framework for vision formulation is developed. Insights from industry interviews reveal that firms often focus on technology applications for existing company processes or lean on already known QC use cases, indicating a limited braveness in vision development. In response, a comprehensive framework for vision development is proposed which broadens the horizon by including socio-economic aspects. This approach ensures that the characteristics of paradigm-shifting technologies are met and that societal challenges are considered in the application identification process.