La réforme de la politique communautaire : une évaluation par le modèle ECAM

The CAP Mac Sharry reform is simulated through the European Community Agricultural Model (ECAM). This reform would radically change the actual trends on cereals : supply decrease thanks to the set-aside ; feed demand increase due to lower internal prices and livestock production growth. Without complementary measures, the disequilibrium between supply and demand would frow in the bovine sector. There would be a global welfare gain due to market price reductions, in spite of farm income reductions and budgetary costs increase.