Further Evidence on the Impact of Late Planting on the U.S. Average Corn Yield

The latest Crop Progress report from the USDA showed that 27 percent of U.S. corn acreage was planted as of April 28, 2024. This is five percentage points above the average for this date over 2019-2023. However, wet conditions in many parts of the Corn Belt have slowed planting progress, with more rainfall in the forecast for the next 10 to 14 days. Concerns have emerged that the wet conditions will lead to more than the normal amount of corn planted late, which may in turn reduce yield prospects. These concerns are not without merit. For example, a recent farmdoc daily article (October 9, 2023) used a crop weather model to show that the variation in the amount of late planting from year-to-year is the third most important variable in explaining the U.S. average corn yield, trailing only July precipitation and temperature. The purpose of today’s article is to use the same crop weather model to provide further evidence on the impact of late planting on the U.S. average corn yield. A complete listing of previous farmdoc daily articles related to late corn planting can be found here.