2024 Low Returns, Prices, and the Federal Safety Net

Returns on corn and soybean production from cash rent farmland in Illinois were negative in 2023 and are projected to remain negative in 2024. Meanwhile, payments from the two standing farm safety net programs — crop insurance and the commodity title program — are forecasted to provide relatively low levels of support for 2023 and 2024. This raises questions about the Federal Safety Net programs, specifically the commodity title programs. In this article, we outline these facts and offer commentary, proposing that the commodity title programs should be more price-responsive. An ad hoc disaster assistance program like the Economic Relief Program (ERP) will provide little aid to Midwest farmers, as low returns from revenue declines within a year do not offset the significant losses in prices sustained over the years.