Un modèle économétrique de l'agriculture française (MAGALI)

MAGALI is an econometric model for French agriculture designed for mid-term agricultural policy analysis. It provides explanation for supply of 27 agricultural products, their corresponding inputs and farm accounts, in order to determine farm income level. It also describes structural change of the agricultural sector through demography and investment. The main characteristics of the French farm sector evolution are well-known. The sluggish growth of the seventies has resulted in low investment, slow growth of individual income, and even decrease of total farm sector income, since 1977. Several explanations can be put forward : general economic conditions, worsened by weather accidents, or structural unfitness of French agriculture to market et requirements. Trough dynamic simulations on the past, MAGALI can try to distinguish these various effects. These simulations should clearly point out that MAGALI is mainly built for agricultural policy analysis (in the past or future), particularly through exogenous prices. They also confirm the high sensitivity of French agriculture to price changes and particularly to the « terms of trade » with the non-farm sector.