What Explains the Disparity between USDA and Conab over Brazil’s Soybean Crop Size?

Brazil leads the world in soybean production. News about the size of Brazil’s crop moves markets, but an ongoing debate about which numbers to trust is adding uncertainty to the current market situation (e.g. Braun, 2024; Siqueira, 2024; Vaclavik, 2024). There are two major public sources for agricultural production statistics, the United States Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Brazil’s National Supply Company, typically referred to by its Portuguese name and abbreviation: Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab). In the past six years, Brazil soybean production estimates from each agency have diverged. The current gap between USDA and Conab is wider than ever before.