Macroeconomic and welfare effects of financial policy, tax incentives in the production cycle (Mixed data pattern method with different frequency (MIDAS))

In this study, the macro-economic and welfare effects of financial policy, tax incentive in the production cycle were investigated using the combined data pattern method with different frequency (MIDAS) for different seasonal and annual time frames. In the estimated model, the annual data of the effective tax rate, the combined index of economic prosperity, current and construction expenditures of the government, and the seasonal data of the oil price and exchange rate, the volume of liquidity and the production index for the years 1370-1400 have been used. according to the model estimation results; Uncertainty of current and construction expenditures of the government, volume of liquidity, exchange rate fluctuations and crude oil price fluctuations have a positive effect and increasing economic security has a negative effect on the production gap. Fluctuations in exchange rates lead to an increase in the amount of external debt of manufacturing companies, and an increase in debt will lead to a lack of liquidity in general, which in general, lack of liquidity of economic enterprises has a negative effect on the production cycle. In general, it can be said that with the increase in volatility in Iran's economic situation, uncertainty in macro-financial and currency policies, oil price fluctuations and many other factors, the volatility in the Iranian market has increased and these factors are the reason for the decrease in production.