Optimal scheduling of integrated energy system considering supply-side flexible response and demand response uncertainty

To further enhance the supply-demand flexibility of integrated energy systems （IES） and achieve low-carbon economic operation， this paper proposes an optimal IES scheduling strategy that accounts for demand response uncertainty and supply-demand responsiveness. First， a refined two-stage power-to-gas （P2G） operational model is established based on the traditional P2G operation process. This model is coupled with carbon capture， combined heat and power （CHP）， and gas boiler systems to develop a supply-side flexible response model， enabling diversified and flexible utilization of hydrogen energy. Second， to address the uncertainty of demand-side participation in response， a comprehensive flexible response model incorporating fuzzy chance constraints is developed. This model is converted into a deterministic using an equivalent clear method. Finally， a tiered carbon trading mechanism is introduced， and an optimal scheduling model is constructed with the objective of minimizing the total operational cost of the IES. Simulation analyses validate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy.