Managing uncertainties arising from technological change induced by sustainability transitions

Technological advancements and sustainability transitions are accelerating, posing significant uncertainty challenges for incumbent firms. This dissertation explores the uncertainty-treatment nexus in emerging technologies, particularly within sustainability transitions, through three essays employing qualitative and quantitative methods. Essay 1 examines uncertainties surrounding hydrogen as an energy vector in 2035, introducing an extended Delphi method to enhance foresight accuracy. Essay 2 investigates uncertainty treatment strategies among European oil and gas incumbents during sustainability transitions, developing a process model of sustainability-induced identity change. Essay 3 analyzes incumbent entry strategies into emerging technologies, highlighting the impact of timing, strategic planning, and diversification on financial performance. The dissertation contributes to uncertainty management by extending its scope to entire technology fields, elucidating interactions between uncertainty types and treatment strategies, and advocating for proactive approaches to managing unknown unknowns.