Organised Crime and Violence in Local Communities: A Study of an ‘Ordinary’ Setting in the United Kingdom

This study investigates the impact of organised crime (OC) on community-level violence outside settings traditionally associated with OC. Leveraging a large-scale police crime incident dataset from Cambridgeshire, UK, it shows that OC has a dual effect of violence-enhancer and violence-suppressor: higher OC presence is associated with higher rates of violence; however, a greater prevalence of OC members among the offenders’ population is associated with a decrease in overall violence. This reflects the role of OC in generating higher-risk environments while providing order in illegal markets. Crucially, this dual effect can be identified also in non-traditional OC settings, suggesting that the dangerousness of such organisations should not be underestimated even in ‘ordinary’ settings and highlighting the need for early interventions.