Losing ground: Future suitability projections for the critically endangered Ateles hybridus using ecological niche modeling

Neotropical primates as forest-dependent species are severely affected by habitat degradation, and the ongoing fragmentation of their ecosystems. These pressures are expected to intensify under future changing climatic conditions. The critically endangered brown spider monkey (Ateles hybridus) is particularly at risk, given its restricted and often isolated range across northern Colombia and Venezuela. Despite the evident threats posed by land-use change and the potential climate variability, explicit tools for predicting conservation areas under risking scenarios remain needed. This study evaluated the gain, loss and stability in suitability areas for the species distribution ranges under different socioeconomical pathways and different global climate scenarios 2040-2060. Furthermore, we escalated to low, mid and high vulnerability of the species to landscape modification to 2050. The results suggest that over 70% of currently suitable habitat may lose to 2060. The remaining climatically stable areas are concentrated below 1,300 meters in elevation, where human activities already exert significant pressure. In addition to climate change, widespread and ongoing conversion of primary forests into altered, non-natural landscapes may pose a rapid threat for species survival. Given the intrinsic biological constraints for A. hybridus, including delayed maturity and low fecundity, its ability to adapt to rapid environmental changes is limited. In this context, maintaining and enhancing landscape connectivity is vital. We emphasize the importance of conservation efforts underway in Colombia’s Middle Magdalena Valley, where the establishment of functional biological corridors has shown promising ecological outcomes in the short term.