How Does That Make Me Feel? The Role of Affective Forecasting in Health Behavior Change

The importance of affective processes for health behavior change is well-established, but little research has assessed the accuracy and impact of affective forecasts for health behaviors. In a longitudinal study of 8 health behaviors (N = 574), we addressed the following: (1) How accurate are affective forecasts about health behaviors? (2) Does accuracy influence health behavioral performance? (3) Does accuracy influence future motivation? (4) What factors contribute to forecasting accuracy? We found that people generally underestimated how good health behaviors would feel. Both overestimation and underestimation predicted lower behavioral performance and motivation. However, accurate forecasts predicted increased behavior and motivation, above and beyond Reasoned Action Approach variables and habit. Additionally, forecasts that were positive and accurate were associated with increased behavior and motivation. Higher anticipated affect, increased behavioral performance, and greater use of cognitive reappraisal improved forecasting accuracy. This study underscores the importance of affective forecasting for health behavior change.