Things Fall Apart: Examining Peace Processes in Northern Ireland and Israel/Palestine Through the Lens of the Bargaining Model of War

This thesis compares the peace processes in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to those that brought about the end of the Troubles in Northern Ireland. I explore, through the lens of James Fearon’s bargaining model of war, why the Good Friday Agreement established a lasting peace in Northern Ireland while the Israeli-Palestinian Oslo Accords failed. I contend that the peace processes in both conflicts were plagued by commitment problems. However, the Good Friday Agreement was able to overcome these by including mechanisms like explicit third-party guarantees, joint dispute resolution committees, and high specificity. On the other hand, the fundamental failure of the Oslo Accords was that they did not include sufficient mechanisms to overcome the commitment problems inherent to the conflict—an unfortunate trend that continues to this day. This thesis concludes with recommendations for achieving sustainable peace in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, drawing inspiration from the successful resolution of the Troubles.