Analysing the Driven factors of Urban Densification in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina

This study examines the multidimensional drivers of urban densification in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, from 2000 to 2020. The analysis explored the complex interplay between physical, economic, and policy factors that shape densification patterns. Through the integration of building footprint data, census information, and land use records, we quantify urban densification across three dimensions: building density, population density, and building compactness. The Spatial Durbin Panel Model reveals significant spatial spillover effects in the densification process, with economic factors—particularly land investment intensity—emerging as the strongest drivers. Geographically Weighted Regression further demonstrates substantial spatial non-stationarity in the relationships between urban factors and densification outcomes, challenging conventional one-size-fits-all planning approaches. Our temporal analysis identifies a notable transition from transportation-led to market-driven densification processes over the study period, with increasing polycentric development patterns. These findings contribute to urban planning theory by demonstrating the value of multidimensional, spatially sensitive approaches to analyzing densification in rapidly growing mid-sized cities. We conclude with policy recommendations that emphasize locationally targeted interventions aligned with the spatially varying relationships between driving factors and densification outcomes.