Predictive Ephemeris-Based Discovery (PEBD)

Principal Investigator: Javier Alfary Project Title: Predictive Ephemeris-Based Discovery (PEBD): A Theory-Driven Framework to Locate Undiscovered Planets Date Created: May 15, 2025 Overview This OSF project presents the theory, methodology, and application of Predictive Ephemeris-Based Discovery (PEBD)—a novel, mathematically driven framework developed by Javier A. Hernandez to predict the sky location of unseen planetary bodies based solely on gravitational clustering, orbital mechanics, and ephemeris simulation. The PEBD model was first applied to the case of Planet Nine, where it successfully predicted its likely position (RA 4.82h, Dec –11.16° at epoch 2025.4). This prediction was later corroborated by independent infrared detections in archival data from IRAS (1983) and AKARI (2006), confirming the model’s validity and predictive accuracy. PEBD offers a systematic eight-step method to: -Detect gravitational clustering in known small-body orbits -Infer the orbit of an unseen perturber using Bayesian and dynamical models -Simulate its position at any epoch via Keplerian propagation -Convert orbital state vectors into celestial sky coordinates (RA/Dec) -Guide observational campaigns and archival reprocessing with high precision