Post-evaluation and Analysis of Passenger Flow on New Rail Transit Lines

[Objective] In the construction and operation of urban rail transit, improving the passenger flow forecasting accuracy for new lines has gradually become a key focus in the rail transit industry. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate, improve and optimize the traditional passenger flow forecasting methods for new lines. [Method] The newly launched metro lines in Wuhan are introduced. The trend pattern of passenger volume, and the comparison between the forecast and actual passenger flows on the new lines are analyzed. Based on passenger flow indicators such as line passenger volume, passenger flow volume of each station, and sectional passenger volume, the reasons for the passenger flow forecasting errors are analyzed, and improvement suggestions for the passenger flow forecasting method on new lines are put forward. [Result & Conclusion] Main reasons for the new line passenger flow forecasting errors include the limitation of the forecasting method itself, the insufficient consideration of line and station attribute, and the insufficient basic data for forecasting. The secondary reasons are the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on passenger flow cultivation and insufficient consideration from the perspective of service. The methods to improve the accuracy of new line passenger flow forecasting include optimizing relevant forecasting parameters, strengthening the attribute analysis of different lines and stations by introducing correction coefficients and floating factors, strengthening the accumulation of basic urban traffic data and the analysis of passenger flow sensitivity, and exploring new methods for passenger flow forecasting of new lines or dynamically optimizing traditional forecasting methods.