Research on Risk Assessment and Preventive Measures for Soybean Supply Security in China

In recent years, due to the fact that China’s soybean production is difficult to meet the rapid growth of domestic demand, soybean imports have continued to increase rapidly. Domestic soybean supply is highly dependent on imports from foreign markets, and it faces multiple risks such as large import price fluctuations, high concentration of import sources and rising geopolitical risks. This study mainly from the domestic supply and demand, market price, international trade, geopolitical risk and other dimensions by exploring the construction of domestic soybean supply security risk evaluation index system, research and evaluation of China’s soybean supply security risk and change trend characteristics. The study found that China’s soybean supply security risk index reached the highest value in 2007 from 2005 to 2023, and the index rose first and then fell, and the overall trend tended to improve. However, the risk index showed a ‘W’- type two-way rebound fluctuation characteristics. The study also found that market prices, geopolitical risks, and import source concentration indicators have a greater impact on China’s supply security risks and need to be highly valued. On the basis of this research conclusion, the research proposes to speed up the development of domestic agricultural product futures and financial derivatives market, and strive for soybean pricing power; strengthen the international production layout and expand the channels of import sources; actively implement risk prevention measures such as soybean reduction and substitution, and reduce the pressure of domestic market demand.