Impact of Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones on Rice Output in Southern China: A Study Based on Survey Data of Rice Farmers in Guangdong

【Objective】The study aims to quantify the impact of tropical cyclone disasters on rice output losses during the harvest period. It seeks to understand the impacts of tropical cyclone disasters on farmers' livelihoods and food security. The findings would provide data support for mitigating the impacts of tropical cyclones on rice outputs in Guangdong and offer policy recommendations for enhancing comprehensive disaster prevention capabilities.【Method】With the pooled crosssection data from rice farmers in Guangdong Province from 2020 to 2022, the Tobit and 2SLS models were used to analyze household plot-level data, and the impacts of tropical cyclone disasters on rice outputs were estimated at a micro level.【Result】Tobit model estimates indicate that tropical cyclone disasters significantly cause rice lodging at the 1% significance level, implying that the likelihood of rice lodging increases substantially when tropical cyclones occur. According to the survey data from 2020, 2021, and 2022, lodging rate caused by tropical cyclones accounts for 22.9% of the total lodging rate. For every 10% increase in plot-level rice lodging rate, rice outputs decreases by approximately 2.9%. The impacts of tropical cyclones on rice lodging and outputs vary among different households and plots within the same region, with coastal areas being more severely affected than inland areas.【Conclusion】Tropical cyclones in Guangdong cause rice lodging, which significantly impacts rice outputs and threatens food security. To mitigate the negative effects of tropical cyclones on rice production in Guangdong, the following policy recommendations are proposed: further improvement of farmland water conservancy infrastructure, including expanding the construction of high-standard farmland to ensure the rapid drainage of flood water caused by tropical cyclones; breeding and promoting the flood-tolerant or lodging-resistant rice varieties in coastal areas of Guangdong; effective communication of hazardous climate information and strengthening of tropical cyclone disaster early warning systems; and further enhancement of agricultural insurance policies for grain production, with increased compensation standards and payout levels.