Scenario Analysis Of The Hospital Environment To Identify The Target Transformability Potential Of A German Hospital System

Hospitals operate in a highly volatile environment in which constantly changing demands arise, for example, from politics, from the population or from technical progress. In order to compete in this environment in the long term, hospitals must react in a targeted manner to these changes. The need for hospitals to be transformable is thus high. Measures to make a system transformable are associated with structural changes that often involve a high organisational and financial effort. It is therefore essential for hospital planners to know the exact need for transformability in order to design the transformability in line with requirements but without excessive effort. With this aim in mind, the most important change drivers for hospital systems in Germany are identified in this paper by means of a systematic survey among groups of people working in hospitals. Based on this, the probable development directions of the most relevant change drivers are described and by using a scenario analysis, their impact on the hospital system could be quantified. From this, the target transformability potentials of each hospital object could be derived, which can serve as a basis for hospital planners to take appropriate measures to achieve goal-oriented design of transformability.