Understanding the role of human inter-provincial mobility on COVID-19 spread: a stochastic meta population model with time-dependent contact rates

Epidemiological modeling that incorporates interprovincial mobility and time-varying contact rates is essential for elucidating the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The migration of individuals between provinces and temporal fluctuations in contact rates shaped by social distancing directives are thought to be the pivotal factors influencing the spread of the disease. To investigate these variables, we constructed a stochastic metapopulation model consisting of 11 subpopulations, each delineated by a compartmental SEIAHRD submodel, to articulate COVID-19 transmission within the context of Mozambique. Inter-provincial mobility was quantified utilizing an origin-destination matrix derived from the radiation model. The interplay between human mobility and variability in contact rates was evaluated while testing three distinct scenarios: model without mobility; model with mobility and model with mobility and isolation of Maputo City. The model incorporating time-dependent contact rates demonstrated superior performance across all model scenarios. These results emphasize the significance of inter-regional mobility in shaping epidemic dynamics and underscore the effect of governmental interventions on fluctuations in contact rates. This investigation underscores the necessity for strategic mobility restrictions and adaptive measures in forthcoming epidemic control frameworks to enhance response efficacy and mitigate health and social repercussions.