Strategic Coupling and Its Impact on the Survival of Taiwan-Invested Enterprises in Chinese Mainland: A Configuration-Based Perspective

This study analyzes the factors influencing the exit of Taiwanese direct investment (TDI) enterprises from Chinese mainland by quantitatively measuring location advantage and spatial stickiness, the two core variables of strategic coupling. It also examines the mechanisms by which regional economies, institutional configurations, and corporate management strategies affect production relocation. Using Internet-sourced enterprise data, this study depicts the temporal and spatial dynamics of TDI enterprise survival in Chinese mainland from 2001 to 2022 and employs qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to explore these drivers. The results reveal that the survival rate of TDI enterprises in Chinese mainland remained above 90%, with higher rates and resilience in the third stage (2014-2022). Spatially, survival rates have consistently been higher in the eastern coastal regions than in the underdeveloped central and western inland areas. Various policies and events, such as the 2008 financial crisis, US-China trade frictions, policies encouraging Taiwan's business repatriation, the New Southbound Policy, and COVID-19, have negatively impacted TDI survival, with the pandemic having a relatively small effect on enterprises surviving to 2-8 years. Synthesizing the results of high survival rate configurations, the strategic coupling relationships between the mainland and TDI enterprises evolved from captive coupling (2001-2007) to cooperative coupling (2008-2013) and reciprocal coupling (2014-2021), with locational advantage and spatial stickiness increasing over time. The key factors influencing TDI shifted from labor costs to regional market size and then to high value-added, innovation-driven fields with more mainland cooperation. This study provides a geographically grounded and multiscalar perspective on TDI enterprise survival, revealing the mechanisms through which strategic coupling affects TDI exits from a dynamic perspective. These findings highlight the importance of drivers and the quality of coupling in understanding the relationship between TDI and regional development in developing countries and regions. Robust domestic economies, large internal markets, competitive regional innovation environments, and preferential policies for Taiwanese businesses have become primary drivers of TDI. This exploratory study lays the groundwork for further research that incorporates industry heterogeneity to clarify the development dynamics and driving factors across different sectors.