Shelf-life prediction model of Premna microphylla Turez jelly

[Objective] The influence of different storage temperatures on the quality and total number of microbial colonies of <i>Premna microphylla </i>Turez jelly was studied, and the shelf-life prediction model based on quality indexes and the total number of colonies were established. [Methods] <i>P. microphylla </i>Turez jelly were stored at temperatures of 1, 4, 10, 15, 20 and 25 ℃, and the hardness, adhesiveness, springiness, chewiness, water holding capacity and total number of colonies were regularly measured. The influence of different temperatures on the quality indexes and the total number of colonies were discussed, and the fitting equations of each monitoring index were determined. According to the quality indexes and total number of colonies of <i>P. microphylla </i>Turez jelly, <i> P. microphylla </i>Turez jelly's shelf-life prediction model was established by combining the Arrhenius model and Belehradck model. [Results] The results show that the different storage temperature has no significant change in springiness, while the storage temperature has a significant effect on the hardness, adhesiveness, chewiness, water-holding capacity, and total number of colonies. The zero-level response equation was the best fit for the change in water holding capacity of <i>P. microphylla </i>Turez jelly, with an average fit of 0.978. On the influence of hardness, viscosity, and chewability, the first-order reaction had the best fitting, and the average fitting degree was 0.967, 0.904, and 0.977, respectively. The Logistics equation had the best fitting effect on the total number of colonies of <i>P. microphylla </i>Turez jelly, and the average fitting was 0.992. Five shelf-life prediction models were validated under the storage temperature of 3 ℃. The relative errors between the measured and predicted values were 7.50%, 8.13%, 4.38%, 5.00%, and 3.75%, respectively, with good prediction results. [Conclusion] The models can effectively predict the shelf life of <i>P. microphylla </i>Turez jelly under storage conditions from 1 ℃ to 25 ℃.