Great Power Competition in Territorial Autonomies: The Case Study of Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI)

Abstract: The United States (US)-China relationship is complicated and economically intertwined. Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas (CNMI), two territories of the United States, are caught at the crossroads of the current competition between two great powers—the United States and China. The CNMI is a commonwealth, whereas Guam is an unincorporated territory of the United States. Currently, the US military controls approximately 30 percent of Guam's land, with three major military bases located in the northern and southern parts of Guam. The opposite is true in the CNMI, which has minimal US military presence. Therefore, people framed Guam as the "Tip of the Spear" of the United States in the Western Pacific. These two neighboring US autonomies have different relationships with China. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the central pillar of the CNMI economy was the tourism industry, significantly driven by the Chinese market. Chinese companies are heavily invested in the CNMI, from mom-and-pop stores to luxurious hotels and casinos. China views Guam as a security threat due to the presence of US military bases. The deteriorating US-China relations will further change the landscape: Chinese propaganda presents China's intention to invade Guam should a China-Taiwan military conflict materialize. The US Senate recently questioned CNMI's close economic ties with China. How will these two US territories align themselves in the US-China conflict? Do Guam and the CNMI have a choice in their positioning? In this article we argue that the current US-China competition serves to reduce the territorial autonomies of Guam and CNMI potentially.