Analysis of Carbon Emission Reduction of Electric Commercial Vehicles in Tianjin Area Based on Vehicle Ownership Data

Under the framework of China’s “Dual Carbon” goals, this study evaluates the emission reduction potential of electric commercial vehicles (ECVs) in the Tianjin region to support the achievement of carbon reduction policies in the road transportation sector. Based on vehicle ownership data and energy consumption characteristics of different vehicle types in Tianjin, the study estimates that ECVs will contribute to a carbon reduction of 167,400 tons in 2023, with freight vehicles showing a greater reduction potential than passenger vehicles. However, carbon leakage from battery production reduces the net carbon reduction to 133,400 tons, with passenger vehicles experiencing a more significant impact. Additionally, in line with Tianjin’s low-carbon transportation policies, the study estimates that by 2030, the region needs to promote the adoption of 66,200 electric trucks and 17,900 electric buses, with the adoption rate for buses outpacing that of trucks.