The Impact of\nDecarbonization on Particulate Soiling\nof Solar Panels

Climate researchers have examined many impacts of climate\nchange\non energy supply and demand under various scenarios. However, the\neffect of changing particulate deposition onto solar panel surfaces\non solar power production efficiency (i.e., soiling) has not been\nstudied. We therefore characterize probabilistic outcomes across multiple\nclimate models and scenarios. We find large current regional losses\n(up to 40% without manual cleaning, up to 20% with monthly cleaning\nand rain removal) in generation that grow slightly under a high-emission\nscenario, largely due to regional increases in windblown dust. In\ncontrast, under a low-emissions scenario, potential production increases\nsignificantly (2–8% interquartile range with only rain removal)\ndue to reduced soiling, especially in regions of Asia and Africa where\nanthropogenic aerosols are major contributors to soiling. Projected\nchanges vary widely across models in many dusty areas outside of the\nSahara and Arabia. Differences can also be large in regions dominated\nby anthropogenic aerosols, such as Nigeria, eastern China, and northern\nIndia, where the full range across modeled potential power production\nchanges extends from −1 to +11% for the end of the century\n(without manual cleaning), underscoring the need to consider multiple\nclimate models. With large increases in projected solar power deployment,\nthe relatively small potential production increases reported here\ncould nevertheless represent a large dividend in additional energy\nproduction. Hence, reductions in air pollution attributable to decarbonization\ncould provide positive feedback under which a greater deployment of\nsolar power (or other renewables) increases the production of solar\npower, facilitating the transition to renewable energy.