Regional patterns and long-term persistence of extreme precipitation in China (1959–2015)
China. This study integrates the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, Rescaled Range (R/S) analysis, and V-statistic methods to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns, persistence, and cycle lengths of extreme precipitation in China (1959–2015), offering new insights into long-term dynamics and regional variability. Our analysis reveals that while total annual precipitation (TAP) has generally increased, extreme TAP shows a slight decline, highlighting its greater sensitivity to climate change. The M-K test identifies earlier abrupt changes in extreme precipitation (1964) compared to total precipitation (1981). Hurst exponent results indicate strong persistence across regions, except in southern China, where non-stationarity suggests potential trend reversals. The V-statistic identifies an 8-year cycle in southern China – the longest among all regions – pointing to sustained impacts on future variability. These findings deepen understanding of extreme precipitation behaviors, emphasizing the need for region-specific adaptation strategies under changing climate conditions. • Greater sensitivity of extreme precipitation to climate change. • Reversal of historical trends in southern China. • Longest average cycle length in southern China.
Institutions
- Hohai University (CN)
- University of Alabama (US)
- Yantai University (CN)
- Geological Survey of Alabama (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
- Published
- 2025-07-18
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102625
- Citations
- 3
- Primary Topic
- Climate variability and models
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 3.32