Regional patterns and long-term persistence of extreme precipitation in China (1959–2015)

China. This study integrates the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, Rescaled Range (R/S) analysis, and V-statistic methods to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns, persistence, and cycle lengths of extreme precipitation in China (1959–2015), offering new insights into long-term dynamics and regional variability. Our analysis reveals that while total annual precipitation (TAP) has generally increased, extreme TAP shows a slight decline, highlighting its greater sensitivity to climate change. The M-K test identifies earlier abrupt changes in extreme precipitation (1964) compared to total precipitation (1981). Hurst exponent results indicate strong persistence across regions, except in southern China, where non-stationarity suggests potential trend reversals. The V-statistic identifies an 8-year cycle in southern China – the longest among all regions – pointing to sustained impacts on future variability. These findings deepen understanding of extreme precipitation behaviors, emphasizing the need for region-specific adaptation strategies under changing climate conditions. • Greater sensitivity of extreme precipitation to climate change. • Reversal of historical trends in southern China. • Longest average cycle length in southern China.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
Published
2025-07-18
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102625
Citations
3
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.32
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article

Regional patterns and long-term persistence of extreme precipitation in China (1959–2015)

3 citations
Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies
Climate variability and models
3.32
article

Regional patterns and long-term persistence of extreme precipitation in China (1959–2015)

article en
3 citations

Abstract

China. This study integrates the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, Rescaled Range (R/S) analysis, and V-statistic methods to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns, persistence, and cycle lengths of extreme precipitation in China (1959–2015), offering new insights into long-term dynamics and regional variability. Our analysis reveals that while total annual precipitation (TAP) has generally increased, extreme TAP shows a slight decline, highlighting its greater sensitivity to climate change. The M-K test identifies earlier abrupt changes in extreme precipitation (1964) compared to total precipitation (1981). Hurst exponent results indicate strong persistence across regions, except in southern China, where non-stationarity suggests potential trend reversals. The V-statistic identifies an 8-year cycle in southern China – the longest among all regions – pointing to sustained impacts on future variability. These findings deepen understanding of extreme precipitation behaviors, emphasizing the need for region-specific adaptation strategies under changing climate conditions. • Greater sensitivity of extreme precipitation to climate change. • Reversal of historical trends in southern China. • Longest average cycle length in southern China.

Journal of Hydrology Regional StudiesVol. 61
Hohai University (CN), University of Alabama (US), Yantai University (CN), Geological Survey of Alabama (US)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 7%
Climate variability and models
3.32
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Regional patterns and long-term persistence of extreme precipitation in China (1959–2015) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS