Complementarity of renewable energy sources in Brazil using qualitative comparative analysis of causal configurations for SDG 7.2 achievement

Abstract Traditional approaches to evaluate progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7.2 rely on single metrics that fail to capture the complexity of energy transitions in high-renewable systems like Brazil. This research develops a multidimensional framework using Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to identify complex causal configurations for sustainable energy transitions. We examine five dimensions: Global Renewable Expansion, Renewable Source Diversification, Seasonal Complementarity, Fossil Dependence Reduction, and Renewable System Stability. Analysis of seven triennial periods (2010–2030) reveals that Renewable Source Diversification emerges as the most important necessary condition (consistency 0.876), followed by Fossil Dependence Reduction (0.799). Three causal configurations achieve perfect consistency (1.0): “Expansion and Stability”, “Complementarity and Fossil Reduction”, and “Complementarity and Stability”. Counter-intuitively, projections for 2025–2030 indicate potential regression in SDG 7.2 compliance despite continued absolute renewable growth, attributed to insufficient progress in diversification and complementarity dimensions. These findings provide empirically grounded policy recommendations emphasizing technological diversification and strategic fossil fuel phase-out over simple capacity expansion.