Development of a risk model for low oocyte retrieval in first-cycle IVF patients with diminished ovarian reserve: a retrospective single-center study

Women with naturally lower egg reserves often face extra challenges with IVF. A common problem is retrieving fewer eggs than expected during the procedure ('low oocyte retrieval' or LOR), which significantly lowers the chance of pregnancy. Doctors lack good tools to predict who is most at risk. Our study analyzed data from 2,594 women with low egg reserves undergoing their first IVF cycle. We created a simple prediction chart that combines key information easily available to doctors: the woman's age, standard hormone blood tests (AMH and FSH), an ultrasound count of egg sacs (follicles), hormone levels on the day of the final IVF trigger shot, and critically - the exact number of hours between the trigger and the egg collection surgery. This chart accurately estimates an individual woman's risk of LOR. Knowing this risk beforehand helps doctors personalize treatment timing and medication, aiming to collect more eggs and improve the chances of a successful pregnancy, while helping patients avoid unnecessary emotional and financial strain.