Computational analysis and modeling of climate impact on Pteridium aquilinum (L.) populations

Pteridium aquilinum is a medicinally important fern with a limited range in northern Iran, increasingly threatened by climate change. Using morphological, genetic, and environmental data, we assessed differentiation, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability across 11 populations. Factor analysis of mixed data (FAMD) identified stipe indument, pinnule shape, and pinnae number as key traits distinguishing populations. Redundancy and association analyses (RDA/CCA) revealed strong links between both morphological and genetic variation and climatic gradients, particularly temperature and humidity, indicating local adaptation. Several SCoT loci were detected as adaptive outliers. Spatial PCA showed that variation is shaped by both global and local spatial factors, forming clines and local variants. Populations varied in sensitivity and adaptive capacity; populations 2, 3, 7, and 8 exhibited the lowest adaptive indices and highest vulnerability. Connectivity modeling suggested that while some populations (e.g., 2, 4, and 6) may maintain or slightly improve connectivity, others risk isolation under future climates. Structural equation modeling (SEM) indicated a positive genetic contribution to adaptation, while differential equation modeling (DEM) predicted logistic growth with temporary instability and genetic decline in vulnerable groups. Overall, findings highlight spatially uneven adaptive responses and recommend targeted conservation through connectivity enhancement, assisted gene flow, and ex-situ preservation of adaptive genotypes.