Determinants of Farmers’ Choices of Adaptation Strategies in Rural Semi-arid Agricultural Communities of Tanzania: A Case Study of Mwanga and Same Districts in Kilimanjaro Region

Climate change is a global phenomenon that poses a significant threat to agricultural farming and the livelihoods of farmers, particularly in semi-arid regions of Sub-Saharan Africa. Since agriculture is the primary source of employment in the region, enhancing the sector’s adaptive capacity has become increasingly important. This paper examines the key determinants influencing farmers’ choices of adaptation strategies to climate change impacts in the Mwanga and Same Districts of Tanzania. A total of 200 farmers participated in a household survey conducted using a simple random sampling technique. A binary logistic regression model was employed to analyse the association between selected explanatory variables and the dependent variable through likelihood estimation parameters. The findings reveal that farmers’ choices of adaptation strategies is significantly influenced by institutional and infrastructural factors. These include market access, time and distance required to obtain farm inputs, cost of seeds, access to climate information, land tenure arrangements, and sources of irrigation. As such, there is a need for relevant stakeholders to ensure that essential farm inputs such as improved crop varieties, pesticides, and fertilizers are made available to farmers in a timely and cost-effective manner. Additionally, expanding irrigation infrastructure is crucial to reduce reliance on rain-fed agriculture, which heightens farmers’ vulnerability to drought and rising temperatures. Furthermore, access to reliable climate information—including both daily and seasonal forecasts on droughts, temperature, and rainfall—should be enhanced and made more accessible to improve farmers’ preparedness. It is also important to note that climate information dissemination should be accompanied with appropriate means for farmers to take.