Shanghai Co‐Operation Organisation: A Concert of Eurasia?

ABSTRACT The Shanghai Co‐operation Organisation (SCO) has emerged as a viable intergovernmental organisation with a vibrant security portfolio. With its recent expansion it now boasts ten members, including rising great powers Russia, China, and India, as well as nuclear‐armed Pakistan, and regional power Iran. However, the organisation is beset with internal inconsistencies and regional rivalries (Pakistan‐India, India‐China in particular) that may preclude its viability. Despite this, the SCO, led by China and Russia, has set itself up as a major counterweight to NATO and other security organisations in Eurasia. This article examines the feasibility of the SCO in forming its own concert of powers in Eurasia in the new multipolar system, with three powers—China, India, and Russia balancing in Eurasia. The research will feature a multi‐methods design, based on the aggregate capabilities model, and using statistical analysis of arms trading and defence budgets amongst the SCO powers, that will enhance the specific case studies. This includes examining what system‐ and unit‐level factors are pushing the member states towards a regional concert, including internal and external, and what unit‐level factors may, or will, prevent a concert from forming.