Spatio-temporal patterns and associated factors of influenza-like illness outbreaks in Chinese mainland: a Bayesian modeling study

The study revealed distinct patterns and related influencing factors of ILI outbreaks in Chinese mainland from 2013 to 2022. Seasonality and spatial aggregation were its main characteristics. Temperature, sunshine duration, and wind speed were negatively correlated with the risk of ILI outbreaks, whereas surface pressure, the proportion of males, the proportion of population aged 14 and below, GDP per capita and floating population were positively correlated with the risk of ILI outbreaks. Relevant authorities should strengthen influenza surveillance in high-risk areas, optimize resource allocation, and enhance vaccination efforts to effectively prevent the exacerbation and spread of influenza outbreaks during peak seasons and in high-risk regions.