A Comprehensive Study of Ward Categorization, Population Projection, and Water Demand–Supply Dynamics in Asansol, West Bengal, India

ABSTRACT Water security remains a critical focus of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), as water is fundamental to both human development and ecological sustainability. Effective urban water resource management relies heavily on the accurate prediction of current and future water demand, which is influenced by urban land use, population growth, and consumption behavior. This study assesses and forecasts domestic water demand in the Asansol Municipal Corporation (AMC) by integrating ward‐level land‐use analysis with estimates of agricultural and industrial water requirements. High‐resolution Google Earth imagery was used to classify land use across the AMC, while population projections were carried out using arithmetic, geometric, and incremental growth models. Domestic water demand estimations adhered to the IS 1172:1993 standards, while agricultural water needs were calculated using FAO's CROPWAT 8.0 and CLIMWAT 2.0 tools. The results indicate a growing imbalance between water demand and supply in the AMC. In the AMC, domestic water demand is steadily rising with population growth. Presently, the total supply from all sources is 45.58 MGD (16,636.7 MG/year) against a demand of 60.85 MGD (22,210.25 MG/year) (2011 census). This study projects domestic demand to reach 80.58 MGD (29,411.7 MG/year) by 2051, creating a gap of nearly 35 MGD (12,775 MG/year), excluding additional agricultural and industrial requirements. Among the sectors, industrial water consumption emerged as the highest (233,888 MG/year), followed by agricultural (56,726 MG/year) and domestic (22,210 MG/year) usage. With rapid urban expansion and population growth placing increasing pressure on local water resources, the study underscores the urgent need for improved water use efficiency and the exploration of alternative water sources to ensure long‐term water security in the region.